(америкосов жалко) Обсуждение урагана в Wall Street Journal.

How much impact will the hurricane have on the U.S. economy in the upcoming year?

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From: Roger Theriault Aug-31 6:44 pm
To: WSJ.com Editors Poll (3 of 51)

3629.3 in reply to 3629.1

This will be major impact, never fear. Gas will hit $4 a gallon, fuel oil will go up as well. May level out some by winter. But that is nothing, the barge shipments up the mississippi have all been affected (shut down). Plastics will double, chemicals and ripple shortage affects.

Oil will probably pass my guess of $80 a barrel and let the extremists dance in the streets all they want. Hurricanes are all over the world and the indian ocean and persian gulf will get there share as well.



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From: Guest Aug-31 8:41 pm
To: WSJ.com Editors Poll (4 of 51)

3629.4 in reply to 3629.2

There will be a major economic impact on the U.S. Already evidence abounds that the petroleum companies are jumping in to grab major profits and run the price of oil way up. This winter is going to be rough for people on fixed incomes, for people who have to drive to work--this will be a major blow to the people of America.
Karen Hedwig Backman

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From: Guest Aug-31 9:33 pm
To: WSJ.com Editors Poll (5 of 51)

3629.5 in reply to 3629.1

The US economy is in the late stages of an expansion fueled by low interest rates and debt. The Fed is raising interest rates to curb the impacts of its own expansionary policies. Depending on the extent of damage to the oil sector, there could be a severe supply shock related to reduced supplies of both oil and natural gas. The only way that the Fed can contain supply shock rated price pressures is to curb demand further, thereby pushing the economy into a recession. Given high household debt and low savings, a recession could be severe.
Paul Taube

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From: Donald Johnson Aug-31 9:37 pm
To: WSJ.com Editors Poll (6 of 51)

3629.6 in reply to 3629.1

Katrina is having some impact on the economy, and it's impact will last for years.

Yesterday, in reaction to the Katrina news, we replaced a 17 mpg Ford Escape SUV with a new Honda Accord Hybrid, which will increase our mileage to 25 mpg according to Consumer Reports and to 39 to 43 mpg, according to EPA and Honda. We'll drive this car 75 miles to our mountain house instead of our 19.6 mpg suv until the snow flies. Our goal was to extend our range per tank of gas, which we also will do by slowing down. Next step, take one car to work, saving 20-30 miles per day. Next steps: fewer trips to stores, 2nd home and vacation spots, work at home instead of communting to the office.

During the '70s, we didn't feel the gas shortages because we lived in Chicago and took public transportation and walked a lot. Now we're suburbanites and more vulnerable to gas shortages.

I suspect there will be a run on high mpg cars during the next month or two. Sales of gas hogs will die until gas prices and supplies are more acceptable.

Questions:

1. Will more people shop online and in catalogs instead of going to stores?
2. Will people cut back on trips to restaurants?
3. Will people car pool more, and take more public transportation?
4. Will people work from home more?
5. Will people live in cooler houses and wear more sweaters?
6. Will people delay buying homes if the economy slows and their jobs security weakens? Will Katrina burst the bubble?
7. Will airlines, rail roads and truckers boost rates to cover petroleum costs? If not, why not?
8. Will mortgage defaults rise? When? How much?
9. Will soccer moms park their vans? What will kids do?
10. How long will we live with higher gas prices? one, three, six, 12 or 24 months, or longer?
11. Will the markets work? Will rising prices and shortages cause consumers to buy less until prices fall and supplies exceed demand? Why and why Not?



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From: Guest Aug-31 9:46 pm
To: WSJ.com Editors Poll (7 of 51)

3629.7 in reply to 3629.1

While regulating gas prices in the long run may not be the best idea, if we had a real leader, he would have demanded (via compassion, if not law) that gas stations wait a week or two before raising prices.

Katrina had not even finished blowing through when, on Monday, from my drive to work to the drive home, gas had gone up 5 to 10 cents. Pure profiteering. The vacation season is pretty much over. If you need gas, you need gas, and ExxonMobileShellUnocal will simply reap bigger profits than ever.
Carol May

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From: Guest Aug-31 10:31 pm
To: Guest unread Poll (8 of 51)

3629.8 in reply to 3629.7

We have $5 a gallon at some stations in Atlanta and two hour lines. The hurricane knocked out power to two pipelines that move gas from the gulf. For me the price is fine but for the next week getting a tank of gas will probably be a challenge. The governor ordered everyone to stop price gouging and hoarding so now we have rampant price gouging and hoarding.

It reminds me of every threat of snow we get here. The bread and milk instantly disappear off the store shelves.

This will definitely have a significant impact. We were at the end of a period of growth. This will push us toward recession. This will be the last straw for Delta and probably a couple of other carriers.

Long term this is going to benefit all of us. Resistance to new refineries will evaporate and that is the sole constraint that limits our supply of cheap gas. Big investment in new capacity equals plummeting prices.

Sander Abernathy